I packed winter coats for the Arctic in September. And gloves. And waterproof boots. Multiple layers of everything.
The forecast predicted cold and rain for our entire two-week trip to Finnish Lapland. So naturally, I went full planner mode: research, Excel spreadsheet with pivot tables (dead serious), detailed packing list.
I treated the forecast like a certainty.
Guess what we got instead? Two weeks of warm, sunny days. No rain. We were massively over-prepared for drizzle and underprepared for the beautiful temperate weather that actually showed up.
Standing there in 70-degree sunshine, I turned to my husband and said: “The forecast isn’t a certain-cast.”
My mistake wasn’t just trusting the weather forecast. It was making decisions in a silo and putting all my eggs in the “cold and rain” basket without building in room for variance.
Strategic planning works exactly the same way.
A forecast is not a “certain-cast.” It’s a prediction based on what you know right now. The best strategic plans don’t just acknowledge this—they’re built to handle it.
But here’s what most organizations miss: You can’t adapt to unforeseen variables if your leadership team isn’t cohesive enough to pivot together.
When reality diverges from your forecast, your team needs:
- Trust to admit when predictions were wrong
- Psychological safety to surface new signals quickly
- Collaboration skills to reallocate resources without turf wars
- Alignment to shift direction without fragmenting into silos
I’ve seen brilliant strategic plans fall apart because leadership teams couldn’t adapt as a unit. Individual leaders course-correcting in isolation just creates confusion instead of agility.
As you’re planning for 2026:
- Use forecasts to inform preparation, not dictate rigid plans
- Build flexibility into your strategy AND the team cohesion to execute when reality shifts
- Monitor for new signals, then make sure your leadership team can adjust quickly together—not in different directions
Forecasts reduce uncertainty. They don’t eliminate it.
Pack for a range of possibilities. And build the team cohesion that lets you adapt when those possibilities become reality.
Because standing in 70-degree sunshine wearing a winter coat? That’s uncomfortable. But watching your leadership team fragment when you strategic forecast misses the mark? That’s expensive.
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